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Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

The Game Theorists
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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of ESvid centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
More THEORIES:
FNAF, The FINAL Timeline ►► bit.ly/2MlHYFe
FNAF, The Monster We MISSED! ►► esvid.net/video/v%C3%ADdeo-_ygN8HLCaJg.html
FNAF This Theory Changes Everything ► bit.ly/2JUQUn6
FNAF, You Were Meant To Lose ► esvid.net/video/v%C3%ADdeo-7bn8hM9k0b0.html
FNAF 6, No More Secrets ► bit.ly/2LVCq4u
Credits:
Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman

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17 ene 2021

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Comentarios 100
Ace2464
Ace2464 Hace 30 minutos
I expected better from you. I want my 22 minutes back, didn't expect you to provide a half assed inconclusive Chewbacca defense.
Happi Boi
Happi Boi Hace un hora
Claim your “Here before dream Commented” ticket here!
Pestilence
Pestilence Hace 2 horas
“Nah you can increase your chance in the lottery, it’s a luck game so it won’t matter”
Emanuel Ziska
Emanuel Ziska Hace 5 horas
Every minecraft speedrunner: finishes the speedrun in about 30 or less minutes Me: beats the game in 24 hours cuz im not good at speedruns and i dont know how to make anything good and i dont know how to make potions or make enchantment books or get enchantment books
TheLonelyTrippersClub
Everyone came for a definite answer but forgot what channel this is to begin with. 😂
Mr_quack
Mr_quack Hace 11 horas
What if mat joined dream smp
Fury OfTheGame
Fury OfTheGame Hace 6 horas
Lol, that will be crazy
shi uido
shi uido Hace 12 horas
With bastion tech pig trades are reliable and quick, so the end part kind of falls flat. You also kind of gloss over how the 1-in-10 million chance that a thousand speed runners running for years would hit dreams luck lol. Seems like you didn't want to outright say he cheated
ann angelich
ann angelich Hace 12 horas
wow, very cool !
MasterMelonX
MasterMelonX Hace 13 horas
I still don’t get why so many people are mad at him. He didn’t say if Dream did or didn’t cheat, he was just saying his point of view on the outer situation. If you came here to see a “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat” you’ve probably already seen multiple videos on the matter and already have a solid opinion. Just let MatPat voice his ACTUAL opinion instead of another insignificant answer that you have already heard multiple times.
Kaden Doerner
Kaden Doerner Hace 15 horas
50 60 is bs cuz chances are it’s never gonna be 50 50
Andrew Galindo
Andrew Galindo Hace 15 horas
7
Raj P
Raj P Hace 16 horas
0:55 *And thats why the reason your grandfather never wants to do anything related to science..*
A FO
A FO Hace 19 horas
Everyone says matpat didn't give answers. He did, he's just being unbiased and analytical. After all, no one knows the truth except for Dream. We can't just judge someone based on pure speculation. The rng evidence is nowhere close to be a solid proof. The 1.16 world record is heavily rng involved as well, indeed lots of them also look too lucky to me, but of course people love to chose to attack a celebrity instead. That being said, just stop involve yourself into stupid drama and controversies. All these accusations and criticisms are dumb.
morbideddie
morbideddie Hace 3 horas
@A FO I agree that luck dependent speedruns and not ideal and it should come down to skill but if Dream also didn’t like that aspect he could have run a different game or the set seed category. He chose to run random seed in a luck dependent game so it’s really on him. Alternately there are loads of speed running live events and races he could take part in if he doesn’t want to endlessly grind runs. Matpat offered this a solution but it already exists so that’s another option.
A FO
A FO Hace 5 horas
@morbideddie If you'll allow a slight digression i may ask, imagine getting a speedrunning world record, all you had to do is being lucky and it no longer requires hard practices and speedrunning skills as before though. How ridiculous and ironic.
A FO
A FO Hace 5 horas
Well, I gotta admit that I'm not smart enough to digest and understand all the information you gave me, and I'm not bothered to check it, but i guess he cheated. Although the drama doesn't matter anymore, but still, good job on that. That's truly really rewardable. ╮(・o・)╭ Move on.
morbideddie
morbideddie Hace 6 horas
@A FO the original analysis and 1/7.5trillion figure already accounts for those biases and gives dream leeway at every opportunity. That’s chances of anyone in the MC speedrunning community ever getting this lucky accounting for bias. The fact that you think some of the current top runs are in anyway similar in terms of how lucky they are just shows that you don’t understand the scales of number we’re talking about. Dreams raw luck (20sextillion) is over 1000 times higher than the theoretical upper bound for how lucky any human will ever get ever. If I picked a grain of sand and hid it somewhere on earth Dreams drop rate is less likely than you picking out that grain of sand first time. The chances of him getting that lucky are so low the only reasonable conclusion is he cheated. If I showed you a Shakespeare play and told you I hadn’t written it but mashed my hand on a keyboard and happened to type it out would you believe me? Or would you come the only reasonable conclusion that I had typed it out or copied it? This isn’t cancel culture any more than drug testing competitive sports is. The leaderboard needs to be fair and you need to weed out cheaters to do that. The fact you think weeding out a cheater with detailed arguments based on verified facts is anything like the hearsay drama surrounding James Charles is ridiculous.
A FO
A FO Hace 6 horas
So it's time for me to go and enjoy my life.
dolphinsniper
dolphinsniper Hace 21 un hora
So.... am I one of the only people that actually enjoyed this video? Like, I feel like he has a point about the lottery nature of the newest Minecraft Update and the Barter System specifically. (Though I've heard that people have actually found a way to control it now?). As well as how different assumptions and different decisions made in regards to data points of statistical analysis can greatly change the numbers involved? Looking at the comments, it sure feels that way.
Bradyn Rex
Bradyn Rex Hace 23 horas
No he did not fake it
GooseSause
GooseSause Hace 23 horas
Can we all agree that the dislikes are from Dream stans?
TheLuchaKabuto
TheLuchaKabuto Hace un día
“Ive probably put more lore into Minecraft than Mojang has” Well yes, but actually yes
No Sleep Jones
No Sleep Jones Hace un día
Monke
Bruh
Bruh Hace un día
I need my 23:30 minutes back please
Yisrael Browne
Yisrael Browne Hace un día
You missed an opportunity to use the dream speed run music for this video.
Varg Kelan
Varg Kelan Hace un día
"Man, I want to capitalize on the Dream drama, but jeez, I don't want to offend my friend and source of stream revenue Dream, so I'll dance around the issue for twenty minutes and then condemn speedrunning in general without giving a definitive statement." You're a transparent hypocrite, MatPat. I just hope that people stop seeing *through* you, and starting seeing *into* you.
Gapple Man
Gapple Man Hace un día
I trust Dream yes he cheated but i think he so good a Man (I'm not a side account of Dream) :)
Marconius
Marconius Hace un día
Plenty of speedrun games feature randomness at a high level, whether it stems from physics interactions, AI behaviors or something else. As a result, speedrunners spend ridiculous amounts of time running the level over and over, not necessarily to improve their skill, but simply to get that lucky constellation of circumstances. Since speedrunners at the top level all have roughly the same skill, the one that gets lucky ON TOP OF THAT will be the one with the record, forcing all players to grind for that bit of luck. This applies to Minecraft as well. The Piglin bartering might seem like just a slot machine, but there are other factors like where the End Portal spawns or where you come up when coming back from the Nether, etc. Yes, you can mitigate these to some degree with player skill, but if the world record is a similarly skilled player AND they get lucky (because they've been trying over and over), they're going to get a better time.
fasthi300
fasthi300 Hace un día
I saw mr beast in the background lol
Bastien Clarke
Bastien Clarke Hace un día
(I got the Latex ref, good times.)
Moon Worx
Moon Worx Hace un día
I think dream cheated his speedrun
Perro
Perro Hace un día
Short answer: Yes
Muffin Thug
Muffin Thug Hace un día
7
DJBatmanGold
DJBatmanGold Hace un día
Dream became famous over night. He made a couple videos, and then boom. 20 million subscribers in a year and a half. It's not like cheating is gonna do anything to his ad revenue.
Lucid Son4r
Lucid Son4r Hace 2 días
Me beast😂😂😂😂
Hsueh-Chen wu
Hsueh-Chen wu Hace 2 días
animemusic
Diamond TDDDylan
Diamond TDDDylan Hace 2 días
Pov: your a dream fan
Selina Houslay
Selina Houslay Hace 2 días
Dreams about teeth if you do he'd be on top of the leaderboard
Just_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire
Wtf are you trying to say? I didn't understand anything you said.
Arszlan Kendi-Szakacs
1:40 Is that a starcraft broodwar marine assultrifle?
Just_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire
EYYY ITS A STARCRAFT FAN AFTER LIKE A COUPLE YEARS I FIND A FELLOW STARCRAFT "ER" OUTSIDE OF STARCRAFT RELATED STUFF!!! I only play sc2 only played the first 1 or 2 missions of sc 1
SITO11MAXI
SITO11MAXI Hace 2 días
Matpat knows more math than many of those "math professors" that gave their answer
Leonard
Leonard Hace 20 horas
@SITO11MAXI The math has been done though, and has already taken into account these variants. Multiple accredited mathematicians did the math and all came to the same conclusion that he cheated. I recommend you watch these vids, because they explain all of this way better than Mat did, and actually gave an in-depth analysis to the math. esvid.net/video/v%C3%ADdeo-f8TlTaTHgzo.html esvid.net/video/v%C3%ADdeo-8Ko3TdPy0TU.html
SITO11MAXI
SITO11MAXI Hace 22 horas
@Leonard but the math can't be actually done because of all the variants
Leonard
Leonard Hace un día
There were so many other mathematicians that did such better analysis than this video. All Mat did was throw a few theories up; he didn't even show any math. Meanwhile, these other guys actually do the math and explain it to you. One even ran simulations to try to replicate the scenario. Mat's vid is really so lackluster.
JauJau
JauJau Hace 2 días
Wtf happened in this video
ljummingen
ljummingen Hace 2 días
Yes, Dream cheated.
PASTAMAN 87
PASTAMAN 87 Hace 2 días
Matpat I have been watching you since the start of the FNAF theories it would be a DREAM if you could respond.
Томат Огородов
Ооо повезло повезло
Julie Dombroski
Julie Dombroski Hace 2 días
Are you Theodd1sout
Rafael Belda
Rafael Belda Hace 3 días
trash
Rafael Belda
Rafael Belda Hace un día
@Sun-Moon-Dragon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Sun-Moon-Dragon
Sun-Moon-Dragon Hace 2 días
nobody cares
xX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXx
I mean showing his work kinda means he’s honest? I’m really not sure and am super late to that thing but I’m neutral
Grievous
Grievous Hace 3 días
Honestly, you dont seem to understand speedruns. Its a hobby for most. They do it for fun. They like the luck. You pass it off as the lottery, but I could get the perfect seed and get last place.
ReelVonic
ReelVonic Hace 3 días
For those who want the answer: He doesn’t give a answer
MasterMelonX
MasterMelonX Hace 13 horas
He did give an answer. It just wasn’t “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat”.
Just_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire
FOr htose who want the answer he cheated
Grievous
Grievous Hace 3 días
I could of just read the top comment but ok
Cookies Revolution
Cookies Revolution Hace 3 días
0:14 "today I am gonna but EVERYTHING in a store including MatPat and whoever this guy
Bittersweet
Bittersweet Hace 3 días
MatPat should have known from Undertale not to undertake such a controversial topic. The reason there's a controversy is because the gray area is shunted into a society that only sees things in black and white. He couldn't give an answer because there is none. Luck is in so many shades of gray the novel was split into 8 sequels, it is indifferent. There is no "Dream did or did not cheat." We will never know unless he comes clean, but if he is telling the truth and he did not, people still won't believe him because his response will remain the exact same as it is now, and see where the current answer got him.
BronyGamer
BronyGamer Hace 3 días
so did mattpat do the usual "The subject has been resolved already, and i will contribute nothing to it but will make a 20 video out of it to get add revenue"?
Marsted R
Marsted R Hace 3 días
This video really doesn't get enough flak.
Revolutionary Cinema Productions
Ok but matpat where is the answer? I cant help but feel he may not have cheated but u promised an answer and u didnt give one... Tf
Kobe Noah Rocha
Kobe Noah Rocha Hace 3 días
Stop this conclusion things, I give you an idea to know wether this guy is cheating or not. JUST WATCH THEM PERSONALY
lucky 81
lucky 81 Hace 3 días
In the Super Mario tennis game. It is sibling rivalry.
꧁Iron III oxide꧂
I just understand the binomial distribution stuff but the other stuff is harder
S u g a r C h e r r i
0:52 Only people who are dumb feel the pain💀🤚
NotToo Straight
NotToo Straight Hace 3 días
Yes he cheated, it is statistically impossible for his runs to happen. You can still watch Dream, it’s not like all he does is speed runs
Kleber Sousa
Kleber Sousa Hace 3 días
Wow, this is such a great first impression on a channel! Nonsensical rambling, almost zero actual research or explanation on the situation and on top of that, you do your best to make a pro dream video while denying it's a pro dream video. At least be a man and admit it.
Octavia Osborn
Octavia Osborn Hace 3 días
"If you've ever tried to use word... It DoN't WoRk!" Me: "Uhhh? Insert tab then symbol?"
Richard Runge
Richard Runge Hace 3 días
Dream hat nicht geschummelt nicht
Q u e e n i e C a r t o o n
I just remembered big vibe block Fossils existed, does anyone know what they came from?
Justin Z
Justin Z Hace 3 días
Pathetic apologia for a cheater. Extremely disappointing.
Freddie Flanders
Freddie Flanders Hace 3 días
Edication
L Train45
L Train45 Hace 3 días
You are everything I hate
Squiggs 【Glitches - ROM Hacks - Speedruns】
This is the Game Theorist channel that everyone always talks about? So they just trash things they don't understand and waste a lot of time trying to be funny while saying nothing real? You literally said "Are we sure that [Minecraft] should have a speedrun board in the first place?", what the hell are you talking about? Of course they should, all games get to have one and Minecraft is like the most popular game ever. Just because you personally don't think luck-based runs are fun to speedrun doesn't mean it's they're not fun to speedrun and shouldn't exist. What a dumb video. Apparently I missed out on nothing important by not watching this channel as a kid.
Leonard
Leonard Hace un día
Yeah; I used to watch Game Theory, but I recently unsubbed because it's just butchering drama where they don't need to be; not to mention the obnoxious amounts of clickbait.
Drjones_1968
Drjones_1968 Hace 3 días
People already found a way around this without removing Piglins. Just switch quadrants and a bastion with enough gold should spawn. Matpat’s conclusion is to change the rules because he did not try to find a solution. What a shitty video.
Alex
Alex Hace 4 días
Just letting you know he wouldn’t hide his answer like this if he didn’t think his friend cheated
MasterMelonX
MasterMelonX Hace 13 horas
He gave an answer. It just wasn’t “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat”
Divyansh Aggarwal
Divyansh Aggarwal Hace 3 días
thats what happened with all of dreams friends. in the tweets where dream defended his run, his friends always replied with something like 'yeah u cant do this sort of stuff'. but once allegations slowly turned to reality, those comments stopped coming
Jim Ryan
Jim Ryan Hace 4 días
I remember one time in a lesson in school taking about statistics the teacher mentioned the whole flipping a coins 10 times and getting heads 10 times in a row, so I started flipping a coin and much to my dismay I got 9 heads in a row. I will never forget my disappointment
RiderLPI
RiderLPI Hace 4 días
0:14 da frik?
Zuwaria Sarafine
Zuwaria Sarafine Hace 4 días
60+ Heads
Fryzzle the Pork
Fryzzle the Pork Hace 4 días
Scripted or real still awesome
Joushua Ollivierre
Joushua Ollivierre Hace 4 días
No
Birb
Birb Hace 4 días
Either provide evidence or go away Stan
DexPeel
DexPeel Hace 4 días
I'm happy that even after all these years, Matpat still is raking in millions.
Tyumer Syuleyman
Tyumer Syuleyman Hace 4 días
flipping a coin 10 times and getting 7 heads
Dr. Fatema Akter Doly
Lol dream never cheated
Birb
Birb Hace 4 días
1 in 7.49999 trillion isn't suspicious to you
Joseph Finley
Joseph Finley Hace 4 días
The historical cheek recurrently dislike because copper frustratingly record at a flagrant flower. eager, impartial environment
NoobMaster1278
NoobMaster1278 Hace 4 días
i just got into high school in australia and i love physics
Sans Hanaragi
Sans Hanaragi Hace 4 días
Matpat I have a theory about on Final fantasy 7 They can't used the phoenix down Because it's in the game not on the real story and the phoenix they can't use it maybe it's just a replica of phoenix and they can't revive aerith Or maybe the phoenix is just a clone Or in a stone that make the phoenix Power weaker or maybe the phoenix doesn't wanna revive anyone because the phoenix imprisonment
Sans Hanaragi
Sans Hanaragi Hace 4 días
On the stone Watch the final fantasy movie Search (Advent children) This is the movie of it watch it matpat
Gaming Geckos
Gaming Geckos Hace 4 días
For people wanting to get an actual ANSWER about this, go check out Stand Up Math's video about Dream.
Gaming Geckos
Gaming Geckos Hace 4 días
This man really spend over 20 minutes dancing around the actual answer and changing the topic, huh?
F1r3r3d
F1r3r3d Hace 4 días
The applejacks and Froot Loops 😂
Declan Ross
Declan Ross Hace 4 días
Unrelated but do think matpat really understands bhoping because I think that if he doesn't that's really funny but doesn't matter.
kamal khanduja
kamal khanduja Hace 4 días
People who want the pop quiz answer: It's the left one :)
OurShadow
OurShadow Hace 4 días
Ffs matpat you don't even answer it properly and all you do nowadays is drag in viewers. ESPECIALLY with the 'undertale 2' instance, Toby Fox had to tell you that you were wrong. Used to watch you all the time man, but things changed.
Antonie Režná
Antonie Režná Hace 5 días
Great work! I really appreciate you teaching us new things ☺️, I am 13 and this is my favourite channel, and you bring new motivation to learn and don't give up learning, when you're teacher's kinda suck...
bruh7
bruh7 Hace 5 días
100
Alvin Alfie
Alvin Alfie Hace 5 días
I watch these videos and get straight A's Thanks mr fun teacherman
Richie \
Richie \ Hace 5 días
My teacher used this video as a review on statistics, i love Mat Pat
SENIOR POOTUS
SENIOR POOTUS Hace 5 días
It’s kinda silly now that I know that he didn’t fake his speed run like now a days mat just jumps on the newest trends ( like hating on dream ) without doing anything math.
Kal wardin
Kal wardin Hace 3 días
Did you do the math? Btw, the verdict has already been passed.. so, no need to worry. Dream cheated.
Jonah Clements
Jonah Clements Hace 3 días
You know Dream still cheated right? His rebuttal was disproven.
Blukester
Blukester Hace 5 días
Sorry but I’ll always hate dream for endorsing the flow squid
Johnwel Enciso
Johnwel Enciso Hace 5 días
F-
Kataklysymuka Ganimosika
3:26 Very Common Meme
Kataklysymuka Ganimosika
Matpat’s IQ to me : 219
Jumpy Animations
Jumpy Animations Hace 5 días
60/100
John David San luis
John David San luis Hace 5 días
matpat new minecraft theory suggestion: soul sand because i think it's the key on the other theories or the missing piece on the lore
Sorceress Fire
Sorceress Fire Hace 5 días
All of these people complaining about how he didn’t actually give an answer obviously didn’t pay attention. He made it very clear that there is no way to actually clear cut say he did or didn’t cheat. It’s like a crime investigation. You can present a lot of evidence, but that doesn’t guarantee that they actually did or didn’t do it. There will always be probable loop holes and ideas that challenge your evidence. There is always a possibility that you are wrong. He didn’t want to give us an answer that could be wrong because no one can say that there is no way he didn’t cheat, but they can’t say he did.
Leonard
Leonard Hace un día
The way the game is coded doesn't account for the luck that Dream got. RNG is random, but it's still a set coded function within the game, meaning that it won't spike in luck so consistenly like it did for Dream. There's no way the original settings of Minecraft can function in that way, unless modded. Karl Jobst did a video on this (I recommend watching it), and he ran millions of simulations on the original MC settings, and could not get even close to the amount of luck Dream got. It's so clearly evident he cheated and is lying about it. There comes a point where you need to believe the unlikeliness of the numbers, or you might as well throw out all systems that function heavily on the basis of stastistics, such as science, math, court systems, etc., because we can't assume anything is correct, by your logic.
Drjones_1968
Drjones_1968 Hace 3 días
@Jonah Clements Agreed, you have to draw the line. You wouldn’t be able to reasonably discredit most speedruns because they were theoretically possible in the RNG glitchless catergory.
Jonah Clements
Jonah Clements Hace 3 días
With the statistics we are dealing with, if you don't accept the fact that Dream didn't cheat because "tHeRe's StiLl a cHaNcE hE DidN't cHeAt," you have to think literally everything that is ever said is true, since there is always a chance that it is.
Drjones_1968
Drjones_1968 Hace 3 días
Yeah, but it’s still a shitty video. He said we should change the rules of Speedrunning instead of proper thinking or basic research. He should already know people found a solution to piglins in Speedrun through ingenuity instead of complaining about RNG. This was such a trainwreck of a video. Should’ve just ended it with no conclusion.
the gamer yepez
the gamer yepez Hace 5 días
Mmm dream thint cheat cause that has happend Abit of times it happend yo me
Drjones_1968
Drjones_1968 Hace 3 días
@Birb This isn’t Reddit, my guy.
Birb
Birb Hace 4 días
R/Ihadastroke Also don't like your own comment
A
A Hace 5 días
plot twist : Dream friend with Technoblade and piglin give more drop rate.
Milk Straw
Milk Straw Hace 5 días
I don't know what to say...
Kayson McLeod
Kayson McLeod Hace 5 días
7 out of 10
Kayson McLeod
Kayson McLeod Hace 5 días
And there's film watching to because of film theory
Kayson McLeod
Kayson McLeod Hace 5 días
So why is there so much Austin lately
Knight
Knight Hace 5 días
i think we can all agree that dream suckts
Grievous
Grievous Hace 3 días
@Frenchyboy I mean, we have to understand. The internet is not only for english speakers, and its hard to write on a phone. Also, the person writing this, but a youtube comment isnt what should define their intelligence. They spelled one thing wrong my guy.
Frenchyboy
Frenchyboy Hace 4 días
@Birb thats not what I mean, I didnt say I did or didn't like him, I meant that not everyone will agree.
Birb
Birb Hace 4 días
Well he cheated but his content is likeable to some people
Frenchyboy
Frenchyboy Hace 5 días
Yikes, that shows how intelligent you are.
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